Last year, Shedeur Sanders was the NFL draft's mystery. This year, it's Alabama QB Ty Simpson.

Charles RobinsonThu, April 23, 2026 at 5:25 AM UTC

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“[The] quarterbacks are all over the place.”

That was the message from a high-ranking AFC executive Wednesday morning, reacting to Miami’s Carson Beck suddenly seeming to average out as the third-ranked quarterback in this NFL Draft for multiple teams. Of course, he wasn’t talking about just Beck. It was an overarching statement about draft ambiguity hanging over the entire class, starting right afterIndiana’s Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.

Once Mendoza’s name is called, you might as well affix the name of the next most highly ranked QB — Alabama’s Ty Simpson — to a dartboard. Then just start throwing. Because like Shedeur Sanders one year ago, nobody is really that certain about where he’s going to end up, or when his name is going to come off the draft board. As I wrote Tuesday, 10 talent evaluators from different NFL teams all pegged Simpson as the No. 2 quarterback in this draft. Of those 10, six put his draft spot as likely materializing in the late first round. Four put him in the early second.

As one longtime evaluator put: “I know everyone is saying second round, but at the end of the day I think he goes in the first because too many teams need QBs and teams at the bottom of the first are willing to trade out this year. This is also arguably the worst draft in history, so it’s not like there are premium players that teams just have to have [at the end of the first]. In a normal draft, Mendoza probably goes 15th, if not lower.”

(Hayden Hodge/Yahoo Sports)

By all accounts, that’s a fair and solidly held assessment on Mendoza across many personnel departments. And it’s not like it’s being whispered. Earlier this month, Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach predicted “there’ll probably be a lot of trades,” with the rationale that even the top of the board lacks a player with the kind of gravitas that makes a top-end pick untouchable. And when picks are touchable, it means trades and chaos.

“That’s what a draft like this — when you don’t have two or three [elite] quarterbacks and a Will Anderson or Myles Garrett — does,” Veach said. “It lends itself to open up to a lot of fun and movement.”

It also makes it hard to pin down a player like Simpson, whose uneven game tape and lack of college starts make him such a sizable risk. And while so many evaluators have been squaring him away as a late first-round trade-up target — or suggesting a definite floor of a second-round pick — it’s worth remembering that this time last year, a litany of executives were certain someone would take Shedeur Sanders several rounds higher than the fifth round that he landed in.

All of this makes Simpson the drama-filled watch for Thursday night and potentially beyond.

With that in mind, I’ll reboot an exercise I went through with Sanders one year ago and give you the different types of fits that could come into play.

Starting with …

The ‘Need’ fitsArizona Cardinals

Kirk Cousins effectively getting $20 million from the Raiders in 2026 to be a one-year security blanket for Mendoza has thrown a little wrench into things for the Cardinals. It has left bridge starter Jacoby Brissett looking for more money to hold the reins next season while Arizona drills down on a long-term starter. That complication is more than enough to put Simpson in play for the Cardinals, let alone the fact that his skills mesh nicely with head coach Mike LaFleur, who is running his own version of the Kyle Shanahan system.

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If you’re putting everything into one box, the Cardinals make the most sense for a Simpson landing spot. The system makes sense. The Cardinals’ pick territory in the early second round makes sense from a stand pat or trade up approach. It’s a dome team, which is ideal for Simpson’s average size. There is a bridge starter in place — whether it’s Brissett or Gardner Minshew — to offer patience. And there’s a need for a young quarterback to develop. Sure, the 2027 draft might offer better quarterbacks, but LaFleur would be getting a chance this year to develop his long-term starter.

New York Jets

Like the Cardinals, the need is there for a long-term quarterback and there is a bridge starter already in place with Geno Smith. Plus, Smith is on only a one-year deal and is currently backed up by a low-end No. 2 on the depth chart in Brady Cook. Structurally, that alone makes a ton of sense when it comes to drafting Simpson, who would eventually slot as the backup and then watch from the sideline as he develops.

The Jets also have the ultimately flexibility, with picks at Nos. 2, 16, 33 and 44 overall. In theory, they could sit tight and take Simpson at 16. Or, if Simpson slides out of the first day, the Jets could select him to open the second round. Or if they don’t believe he’ll last to 33, they could package Nos. 33 and 44 and move back into the first round and get Simpson with an extra year of contract control.

The one thing that gives me pause about the Jets, though, is the fact that they have three first-round picks in the 2027 draft, including their own, one from the Dallas Cowboys and one from the Indianapolis Colts. That draft is expected to be loaded at quarterback. Of course, it’s hard to make moves hoping that a future draft comes through with a quarterback. And if the Jets like Simpson enough, it stands to reason they could use all of that 2027 capital to build up the offense around him one year from now. That keeps the Jets among the real contenders to draft Simpson.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The quarterbacks under contract are Mason Rudolph and Will Howard. Supposedly, the Steelers still have no word from Aaron Rodgers on his potential return — although, frankly, this once again feels like last offseason, when all the signs pointed to Rodgers being under center. Perhaps that’s not the case this time around. And if it isn’t then the Steelers have to be a serious contender to take Simpson, even if his size limitations in the AFC North make it feel like they’re once again compromising to draft a young quarterback.

My gut, and past conversations I’ve had with the Steelers’ front office, lead me to think they don’t want to reach for a quarterback with limitations again, like they did with Kenny Pickett. But the fact remains that new head coach Mike McCarthy doesn’t have a clear-cut starter right now. I still think the Steelers have been sitting on their hands for a reason and Rodgers will be back to kick the QB can down the road another season. But need is need.

The ‘Preparation’ fitLos Angeles Rams

At some point, the Rams have to find a young player to groom behind Matthew Stafford. Now backup Jimmy Garoppolo is mulling retirement, which at least drives home the reality that the Rams have to seriously start looking at quarterback options. It helps that Stafford played at an MVP level in 2025, which is at least suggestive that he might have a slightly longer horizon than initially thought.

From all the conversations I’ve had about the Rams, they seem intent on trying to run it back with Stafford and Garoppolo next season and add to the offense in another way. I still believe they draft a piece to help Stafford rather than replace him. But Simpson’s traits also fit Sean McVay’s offense, and he wouldn’t be forced into action unless Stafford gets hurt in 2026. That leaves open the door to play the long game and potentially shock everyone and take Simpson as high as No. 13 overall. This is another team where my gut says no, but the long play is also enticing. Even if it means sacrificing a win-now pick at 13th overall.

The ‘Total Chaos’ fits (if Simpson has a wild draft slide)Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson’s contract extension isn’t done and the longer that lingers, the more smoke there will be about team owner Steve Bisciotti and general manager Eric DeCosta preparing for life after Lamar next offseason with a total reboot. It’s hard to see this being where Simpson lands, but lest anyone forget, the Ravens had interest in Sanders when he slid in last year’s draft. If Simpson were to get to, say, the 45th overall pick, anything could happen.

Philadelphia Eagles

This is a sneaky one and not anything that I think would be in play for the 23rd overall pick. That said, I can’t get it out of my mind that general manager Howie Roseman stunned everyone — including some people inside his own organization — when he decided to take Jalen Hurts with the 53rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. As the pick-from-your-home-office COVID draft, it feels like a lifetime ago. And maybe people forget that at the time, it seemed unthinkable that the Eagles would take a quarterback in the second round with Carson Wentz already entrenched as a young franchise starter. But Roseman saw two things: Wentz being difficult to coach and value in Hurts. I doubt Roseman would be that bold twice, but I put nothing past him if Simpson were to somehow trickle down to the 54th overall pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By all accounts, Baker Mayfield is going to get his contract extension and this team doesn’t belong here. But he doesn’t have that extension right now. That at least makes Tampa Bay’s 46th overall pick interesting theater if Simpson gets to that point in the draft. Highly unlikely. But I also didn’t think there was a chance in hell the Atlanta Falcons would draft Michael Penix Jr. after signing Kirk Cousins, either.

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Source: “AOL Sports”